Signatures of Quantum-like Chaos in Dow Jones Index
نویسنده
چکیده
Dow Jones Index time series exhibit irregular or fractal fluctuations on all time scales from days, months to years. The apparently irregular (nonlinear) fluctuations are selfsimilar as exhibited in inverse power law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations. Inverse power law form for power spectra of fractal fluctuations in space or time is generic to all dynamical systems in nature and is identified as self-organized criticality. Selfsimilarity implies long-range space-time correlations or non-local connections. It is important to quantify the total pattern of fractal fluctuations for predictability studies, e.g., weather and climate prediction, stock market trends, etc. The author has developed a general systems theory for universal quantification of the observed inverse power law spectra in dynamical systems. The model predictions are as follows. (1) The power spectra of fractal fluctuations follow the universal and unique inverse power law form of the statistical normal distribution. (2) The non-local connections or long-range correlations in space or time exhibited by the fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos in dynamical systems. (3) The apparently irregular geometry of the fractal fluctuations forms the component parts of a unified whole precise geometrical pattern of the logarithmic spiral with quasiperiodic Penrose tiling pattern for the internal structure. Conventional power spectral analyses will resolve the logarithmic spiral pattern as an eddy continuum with progressive increase in eddy phase angle. (4) Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of normalised daily, monthly and annual Dow Jones Index for the past 100-years show that the power spectra follow the universal inverse power law form of the statistical normal distribution in agreement with model prediction. The fractal fluctuations of the non-stationary Dow Jones Index time series therefore exhibit signature of quantum-like chaos on all time scales from days to years.
منابع مشابه
Instability and chaotic dynamics in stock returns
In this paper we examine certain properties of the Dow Jones and the Nikkey indices, investigating the existence of stochastic and deterministic non linear structures. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis, we construct a local measurement of randomness which identifies some extreme events and their im pact on the randomness of the systems. Our results suggest no evidence of chaos in the d...
متن کاملThe Value Line Dow Jones Stock Evaluation Model: Is It Useful?
At the end of every year the Value Line (VL) Corporation publishes its forecasts of the Dow Jones Index and its probable ranges for the coming three years using a three explanatory variable multiple regression model that we call the Value Line Dow Jones (VL-DJ) model. The model is a static time series model. Therefore, forecasts of the Dow Jones Index rely on forecasts of the independent variab...
متن کاملFractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of Chinese Energy Markets
In this paper, we analyze and compare long-range power-law correlations of returns, absolute returns, squared returns, cubed returns and square waved returns for sixteen individual stocks from the block of energy sources of Chinese stock market and five stock indices (Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average index, Nasdaq Composite Index, the Standard and...
متن کاملPredictability of Dow Jones Index via Chaotic Symbolic Dynamics
We define alignment scores, the Hurst exponent and root mean square variation and use them along with Shannon entropy to analyze the Dow Jones index for the years 1985-2010. It is seen that the dynamical behavior of the US stock market is characterized by the temporal variations of the Hurst exponents, the Shannon entropy, the scores and the root mean square variation. We conclude that these me...
متن کاملSignatures of Quantum-like Chaos in Spacing Intervals of Non-trivial Riemann Zeta Zeros and in Turbulent Fluid Flows
The spacing intervals of adjacent Riemann zeta zeros (non-trivial) exhibit fractal (irregular) fluctuations generic to dynamical systems in nature such as fluid flows, heart beat patterns, stock market price index, etc., and are associated with unpredictability or chaos. The power spectra of such fractal space-time fluctuations exhibit inverse power-law form and signify long-range correlations,...
متن کامل